Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6/2B event observed at
08/1620Z from Region 2113 (N10E48) with associated type II and type IV
radio sweeps. Initial observations showed an associated CME over the
northeast limb which does not appear to be earthward-directed. There are
currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 357 km/s at
07/2310Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/2213Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/0542Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled levels on day one (09 Jul) and quiet levels on days
two and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 201
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 200/190/180
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 011/012-007/007-007/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10