Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 07/2210Z from Region 2924 (S31E06). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at 08/2024Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 08/1827Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 08/1848Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2655 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Jan), unsettled to active levels on day two (10 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 102
Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 08 Jan 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 011/012-011/014-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/20
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/50/30