Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 08/0005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 207 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 075
Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 08 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 005/005-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/25/25