Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 January 2020

By SpaceRef Editor
January 8, 2020
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 08/1648Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/1349Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/1349Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Jan, 10 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (11 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 074
Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 08 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 008/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 25/25/10

SpaceRef staff editor.