Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 755 km/s at 08/1742Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0724Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/0706Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25537 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jan), quiet levels on day two (10 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jan 072
Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        08 Jan 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  007/013-006/008-008/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/25
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/25
Major-severe storm    25/15/30