Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (09 Jan, 10 Jan) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (11 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 611 km/s at 08/0140Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/1355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/1014Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5724 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 109
Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 108/105/100
90 Day Mean 08 Jan 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 007/008-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20