Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 January 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
January 8, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 January 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 08/0434Z from Region 2253 (S06W57). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 583 km/s at 08/0040Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 08/0048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/1344Z.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan).

 

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan

Class M    50/50/50

Class X    10/10/10

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           08 Jan 157

Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan 160/165/165

90 Day Mean        08 Jan 158

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  023/033

Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan  016/018

Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  013/015-010/010-007/010

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/20/20

Minor Storm           10/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/25/25

Major-severe storm    40/30/30

 

SpaceRef staff editor.