Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 January 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
08/1912Z from Region 1640 (N28, L=322). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
with a chance for moderate levels on days one, two, and three (09 Jan,
10 Jan, 11 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 363 km/s at
08/0004Z. Total IMF reached 5.6 nT at 08/1957Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4.9 nT at 08/2004Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 156
Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 150/140/140
90 Day Mean 08 Jan 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 003/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 007/008-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/05
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/15/05