Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/2306Z from Region 2941 (N25E24). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 08/0038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11396 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Feb), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (10 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on day three (11 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 123
Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 122/120/110
90 Day Mean 08 Feb 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 010/014-018/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/40/45
Minor Storm 25/35/20
Major-severe storm 05/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/10
Minor Storm 30/20/25
Major-severe storm 60/75/60