Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (11 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 403 km/s at 08/1441Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/1906Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    15/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 078
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 078/078/076
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  010/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/15