Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 07/2145Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/2035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/1228Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 18550 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 073
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 073/072/073
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  007/007-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/05/05