- Status Report
- Feb 1, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 February 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 07/2145Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/2035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/1228Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 18550 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 073
Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 073/072/073
90 Day Mean 08 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/05/05