Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/0529Z from Region 2492 (N14W19). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at 08/0757Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 08/0600Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/0349Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (09 Feb, 11 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 115
Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 08 Feb 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 012/018-008/008-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/25
Minor Storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/20/35