Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 08/0558Z from Region 2277 (N09W70). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 643 km/s at 08/1504Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/0310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 276 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 153
Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 08 Feb 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 010/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 009/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
