Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 07/2121Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/0123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 496 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Dec), active to severe storm levels on day two (10 Dec) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (11 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 082
Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 08 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 011/015-028/040-018/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/15
Minor Storm 25/30/05
Major-severe storm 05/10/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 60/65/25