Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 December 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
December 8, 2019
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 08/1308Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/1144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/0606Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 072
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  006/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.