Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 610 km/s at 08/2054Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/0644Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/0716Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 551 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (11 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 071
Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 070/068/068
90 Day Mean 08 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 010/012-009/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 25/20/15