Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 December 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 07/2117Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/0628Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3375 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 Dec, 10 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 070
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  006/005-006/005-012/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/35