Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 08/0039Z from Region 2222 (S19W91). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 806 km/s at 08/0028Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/1206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/1612Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9964 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels on day one (09 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 133
Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 135/145/155
90 Day Mean 08 Dec 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 019/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 011/015-007/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
