Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
08/1009Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec,
11 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 688 km/s at 08/1427Z. Total IMF reached 27 nT at 08/0219Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -24 nT at 08/0225Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Dec, 10 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 166
Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 168/170/172
90 Day Mean 08 Dec 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 021/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 011/018-009/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/05
Minor Storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/35/10