Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 August 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 07/2126Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/0914Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 07/2347Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 143 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Aug, 10 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (11 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 074
Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 074/074/073
90 Day Mean 08 Aug 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/15