Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 08/0035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2171 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 075
Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 074/072/072
90 Day Mean 08 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 006/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10