Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 08/1251Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0516Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/1244Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21913 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 069
Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 08 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/25/25