Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 08/1937Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/0951Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Aug 070
Predicted   09 Aug-11 Aug 070/069/068
90 Day Mean        08 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug  006/005-007/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/40