Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 07/2232Z from Region 2571 (N12W19). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 08/1935Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/1435Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11010 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Aug, 10 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 096
Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 08 Aug 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 011/012-010/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 35/35/30
Major-severe storm 30/30/25