Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Aug,
10 Aug, 11 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 474 km/s at
07/2104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5826 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Aug), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (10 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (11 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 104
Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 08 Aug 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 007/010-015/022-019/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/40
Minor Storm 05/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/60/60