Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 08/1514Z from Region 2978 (S19W77). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (09 Apr) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 07/2242Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 08/0559Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 306 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 109
Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 108/105/102
90 Day Mean 08 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 010/015-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/40/25