Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr, 11 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 513 km/s at 08/1906Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 08/1338Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/0227Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 371 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 070
Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 08 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 009/008-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/35
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/45