- Status Report
- Dec 3, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 April 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr, 11 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 08/1243Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 08/0440Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 08/0415Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23078 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 079
Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 08 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 010/012-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/25/25