Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr, 11 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 08/1243Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 08/0440Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 08/0415Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23078 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Apr 079
Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        08 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  010/012-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/25/25