Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/1638Z from Region 2529 (N10E65). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr, 11 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1039 km/s at 07/2216Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 08/0235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 07/2127Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 098
Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 08 Apr 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/10/10
Major-severe storm 25/10/10