Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 September 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 07/1957Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/1342Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/2050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1479 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 101
Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 07 Sep 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20