Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 September 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 679 km/s at 07/1408Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 07/1332Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 07/1501Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2559 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (08 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 084
Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 07 Sep 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 025/043
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 022/026-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 25/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/30/25