Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/2250Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Sep,
09 Sep, 10 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 420 km/s at
06/2107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1006 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Sep) and quiet levels with a chance
for unsettled to active levels on days two and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 099
Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 095/100/105
90 Day Mean 07 Sep 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 006/005-007/010-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/25
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/30/30