Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 October 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 07/0246Z from Region 2882 (N17E28). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 335 km/s at 07/0502Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/0137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/1056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 118 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 086
Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 086/086/084
90 Day Mean 07 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 008/008-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/20