Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 October 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 07/2016Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/1957Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/1442Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1927 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast:

III. Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 068
Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 07 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 005/005-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/25/25