Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 October 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 06/2101Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/1434Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 273 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Oct, 09 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Oct 080
Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        07 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    15/10/25