Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 7, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 845 km/s at 07/2033Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 07/1425Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 07/1339Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 639 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (08 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (09 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 081
Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 080/085/085
90 Day Mean 07 Oct 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 041/079
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 030/048-014/018-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/25
Minor Storm 50/25/10
Major-severe storm 25/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/20
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 80/60/35

 

SpaceRef staff editor.