Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/1600Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
421 km/s at 06/2342Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 259 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10
Oct).

III. Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 125
Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 07 Oct 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 006/007-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20