Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s at 07/0416Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/0250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/0651Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 967 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 091
Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 092/092/090
90 Day Mean 07 Nov 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10