Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 November 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
November 7, 2019
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 07/0034Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/0412Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/0149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1011 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Nov, 09 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 070
Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 070/068/068
90 Day Mean 07 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 006/005-006/005-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/35

SpaceRef staff editor.