Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 675 km/s at 07/1920Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 07/1548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 07/1508Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and three (08 Nov, 10 Nov) and active to minor storm levels on day two (09 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 068
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  000/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  018/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  024/032-028/036-020/028

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    60/55/50