Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 07/0752Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/0759Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/2137Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1317 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 077
Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 07 Nov 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 014/020-010/012-011/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/20