Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 7, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 07/0021Z from Region 2448 (N05E37). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 719 km/s at 07/0257Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 06/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 06/2232Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5714 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (08 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 115
Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 07 Nov 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 028/045
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 014/020-014/018-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/25
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/30/30

SpaceRef staff editor.