Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to

07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at

07/1726Z from Region 2205 (N15E32). There are currently 4 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate

with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09

Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

523 km/s at 07/2003Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 07/1851Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/1956Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Nov,

09 Nov, 10 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on

days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov

Class M    70/70/70

Class X    30/30/30

Proton     10/10/10

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           07 Nov 146

Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 148/148/148

90 Day Mean        07 Nov 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov   008/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  010/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  007/008-008/008-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/25/25

Minor Storm           05/05/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    30/30/40