Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
07/1425Z from Region 1890 (S11E10). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
401 km/s at 07/1616Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 07/1034Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/1002Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at
07/0435Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 148
Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 150/155/160
90 Day Mean 07 Nov 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 009/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10