Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 07/0605Z from Region 3006 (S29E23). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 625 km/s at 07/0429Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/1112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/1112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1408 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 May, 10 May) and quiet levels on day two (09 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).

III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 118
Predicted 08 May-10 May 118/116/110
90 Day Mean 07 May 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May NA/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 008/008-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/25
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 30/10/30