Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 May 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 07/1904Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 331 km/s at 06/2145Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/0024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 07/1511Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 282 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).

III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 075
Predicted 08 May-10 May 075/075/077
90 Day Mean 07 May 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 006/005-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/20