Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/1156Z from Region 2740 (N08E28). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on day one (08 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (09 May, 10 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 07/0147Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/2234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/0252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1047 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 May, 10 May).

III.  Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 May 079
Predicted   08 May-10 May 079/079/079
90 Day Mean        07 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/15