Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 May 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/1156Z from Region 2740 (N08E28). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on day one (08 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (09 May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 07/0147Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/2234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/0252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1047 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 May, 10 May).
III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 079
Predicted 08 May-10 May 079/079/079
90 Day Mean 07 May 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/10/15