Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 May 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 714 km/s at 07/0051Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/0309Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 24933 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (08 May, 09 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 May).

III.  Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 May 070
Predicted   08 May-10 May 070/071/071
90 Day Mean        07 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  024/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  018/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  014/016-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/40/30