Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 May 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 380 km/s at 07/0243Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/0315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1535 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May), quiet levels on day two (09 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 May).

III.  Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 May 072
Predicted   08 May-10 May 072/070/070
90 Day Mean        07 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  008/008-005/005-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/10/30