Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/1713Z from Region 2541 (N04E00). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 571 km/s at 07/0007Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/2214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/2241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 125 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (09 May, 10 May).

III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 088
Predicted 08 May-10 May 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 07 May 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 013/018-018/025-018/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/40
Minor Storm 10/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/65/65